Options for 2014

[tzwicky]

........ that'll be something on ITV rather than BBC?

tzwicky

[jotunheim]

Personally, I think London will be the only option in 2014 and have made peace with it, so to speak.

I have already received a subscriber packet for St. Paul, MN should receive one soon for Madison, so any shows going out on tour should be booked or very close. An earlier thread had what I believe was an upstate NY theatre trying to book the show for next season and was told it was canceled and I don't think there is time to reconfigure the show now for 2013-14 to a different production company or non-union.

I think other members have also noticed that some of the venues have extremely weak sales, which is another indicator that the show has made its run and is time for a break. This happens to all shows eventually and BETM did make its planned 3 year run.

I think likely the best and most probable return would be a Broadway or NA tour revival, but probably not for a decade or more. The production costs and investment are too high with the difficulty finding qualified Billy's, training them and the continual process of keeping 3-4 of them in rotation. I can't really see this as a viable regional production for this reason - it would be very expensive to start up again, with a larger than average investment to produce the show and a limited market.

[rob_hanson1979]

Debbie Downer

:-p

[jotunheim]

Debbie Downer

:-p

Pollyanna

I thought someone was going to say something like that, and of course I would like the tour to continue, but I am just calling it seems to be playing out right now. As long as it is playing somewhere in the world, I will be sufficiently content.

[kport]

A musical with a huge number of Tonys will not take a decade to return. I would give it about three - four years from the moment it closes until it is resurrected in some form on these shores.

Re training: London has available (if they are willing) a group of outstanding Billys on the Tour who might be persuaded to do a 'Tade'. London need not train any local talent for the rest of 2013 (the Billy Youth Theatre is defunct as a training ground). London could return the favour by training the Billys/Michaels when the Tour resumes down the road.

With the pound at an all time low, a NA, EU, or Far East Tour underwritten by The Old Vic, RSC, The Really Useful Company or Cameron McIntosh could make a lot of sense, especially if the London theatre scene comes under sustained economic pressure. These clever people think 'outside the box'. They have to - to survive.

[jotunheim]

A musical with a huge number of Tonys will not take a decade to return. I would give it about three - four years from the moment it closes until it is resurrected in some form on these shores.

I hope so, but that may be a bit optimistic in my mind. I see Billy Elliot on roughly the same scale of popularity, complexity and expense as Miss Saigon one generation earlier. That show ran for 10 years both on Broadway and the West End, ending in 1999 and 2001 respectively, and was clearly a successful and popular show. The NA Tour ran for about 3 years after the run on Broadway and was also successful and another tour is now starting this fall - 8 years later. There is also a West End revival now planned for 2014 - 15 years after that production closed. I completely agree with you that it will be back, I just don't think it will be all that soon. But, this makes the eventual return in my mind all that more special.

Re training: Assuming the London production is still running if and when a NA revival is deemed appropriate, I would agree that having London assist with exporting some Billy's would greatly help in re-launching the production with regards to risk mitigation, training cost and time.

[rob_hanson1979]

GAH! I don't even want to think about having to go 15 years without seeing BETM! What a sad situation that would be!

On a side note... I really didn't enjoy Miss Saigon. I can't say why, but it just didn't impress me or capture me in any way, shape, or form. Usually I like at least some of a musical, or get the songs stuck in my head. Maybe I was just having an off day, but that show just did nothing for me

[porschesrule]

I hope so, but that may be a bit optimistic in my mind. I see Billy Elliot on roughly the same scale of popularity, complexity and expense as Miss Saigon one generation earlier.

I don't see that comparison. For one thing, the total size of the cast of BETM, and the number of children in key roles -- is a major difference with Miss Saigon when it comes to expenses for the show. That and the fact that with BE the lead is a child actor (times four) who has to have an extraordinary amount of skills. The expense of finding and training Billy on an ongoing basis alone is a huge expense that Miss Saigon never had.

Financially (and this may be researchable so as to compare Miss Saigon's numbers) remember that BE was averaging revenues of about $700K per week on Broadway when it closed and it was losing money. By comparison, if you look at the top shows on Broadway now, BE would be bringing in more weekly than half of them. But most of those shows don't have the expenses BETM had/has.

I think a better comparison is to the musical Oliver! in terms of cast makeup. The original Broadway production of that show opened and closed in the early 1960s and was revived on Broadway in 1984. So I don't think 10-15 years out is unrealistic for a Broadway revival of BETM.

[jotunheim]

I chose Miss Saigon because it was one of the very few shows that I could think of that was a recent production that was popular, would want to see repeatedly, was a show that I felt was more intellectual and complex and had a relatively high expense to produce.

I would agree that Oliver! would likely be a better comparison on the surface with the cast makeup, but I never saw it and both productions took place either before I was born or was in grade school, so I really cannot comment much. This example would appear to project an even more lengthly interval of over 20 years between productions, however, if that were the model. Forces working to lower this interval would be that BETM was more successful and widely produced than Oliver! was in the day, but working against it is the inherent cost of reviving the show - more than almost any Broadway show performed.

[mikey2573]

I don't think BILLY will be a problem for regional theaters and I suspect that, once the tour closes, we will see numerous regional productions. It is a popular title with lots of children in the cast and that is appealing to many audiences. As to finding Billys to fill the shoes, most areas around the US have dance and ballet schools and the boys would be obvious contenders for Billy. They may not be as "polished" as those Billys we've seen on Broadway or on tour (though they could be), however Billy is not supposed to be a great dancer; it is the POTENTIAL that must be seen. Just look at Jamie Bell's dancing in the film; there is definitely a "rough around the edges" look to his dancing. Makes it more suspenseful if he isn't a shoe in for the Royal Ballet.